Scouting Report
Chris Wagner holds a +1.6% FO% edge overall. Wagner wins 56.3% vs left-shot opponents — Duchene shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Wagner 53.1% vs Duchene 55.6% (+1.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 60.9%
Defensive zone
Wagner 62.6%
Neutral zone
Duchene 57.2%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 53.1%
46.9%
53.1%
Wagner
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
Wagner
Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
0
2
Wagner
Duchene
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Wagner
1
0
Wagner
Duchene
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Wagner
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
61.4% (44)
56.5% (566)
+4.9%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (18)
22.2% (9)
+27.8%
On penalty kill, Wagner has a +27.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Wagner is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (48).
Wagner shoots right. Duchene is 53.8% vs right-shot opponents (251).
Home / Away
Wagner
Duchene
Home
63.9% (36)
56.6% (318)
Away
50.0% (26)
56.4% (319)
By Period
Wagner
Duchene
P1
66.7%
57.2%
P2
37.5%
55.1%
P3
64.0%
55.6%
Final 5 min
63.2%
47.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Wagner
40.0%▼
49.5%
58.1%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
56.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 27, 2024 | 3 | 09:21 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 27, 2024 | 2 | 04:02 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 27, 2024 | 1 | 19:28 | Defensive | Chris Wagner |