Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +8.0% FO% edge overall. Wagner wins 44.0% vs left-shot opponents — Duchene shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Wagner 47.1% vs Duchene 52.1% (-8.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 60.3%
Defensive zone
Wagner 74.6%
Neutral zone
Wagner 53.6%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 60.3%
39.7%
60.3%
Wagner
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Wagner
Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
0
1
Wagner
Duchene
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Wagner
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
41.6% (77)
53.0% (723)
-11.4%
Penalty Kill
51.6% (31)
43.8% (16)
+7.8%
On even strength, Duchene has a +11.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Wagner is 44.0% vs left-shot opponents (91).
Wagner shoots right. Duchene is 50.2% vs right-shot opponents (323).
Home / Away
Wagner
Duchene
Home
46.3% (54)
54.9% (408)
Away
42.6% (54)
50.0% (432)
By Period
Wagner
Duchene
P1
48.6%
52.5%
P2
55.9%
51.7%
P3
30.8%
53.6%
Final 5 min
40.0%
53.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Wagner
40.0%▼
49.5%
44.4%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
52.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 29, 2024 | 1 | 15:17 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |