Scouting Report
Chris Wagner holds a +15.9% FO% edge overall. Wagner wins 56.3% vs left-shot opponents — Novak shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Wagner 53.1% vs Novak 43.5% (+15.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Novak 61.1%
Defensive zone
Wagner 83.2%
Neutral zone
Wagner 61.3%
Result
Chris Wagner favored at 56.7%
56.7%
43.3%
Wagner
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Wagner
Novak
Last 5: Wagner 3-2 Novak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Wagner
Novak
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Wagner
1
0
Wagner
Novak
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Wagner
Novak
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Wagner
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
61.4% (44)
40.7% (460)
+20.7%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (18)
0.0% (1)
+50.0%
On penalty kill, Wagner has a +50.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Wagner is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (48).
Wagner shoots right. Novak is 41.9% vs right-shot opponents (160).
Home / Away
Wagner
Novak
Home
63.9% (36)
47.0% (236)
Away
50.0% (26)
37.9% (264)
By Period
Wagner
Novak
P1
66.7%
43.1%
P2
37.5%
43.1%
P3
64.0%
40.1%
Final 5 min
63.2%
38.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Wagner
40.0%▼
49.5%
58.1%
Novak
40.0%▼
42.0%
42.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2, 2024 | 3 | 19:07 | Neutral | Chris Wagner |
| Mar 2, 2024 | 3 | 13:36 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 2, 2024 | 3 | 02:33 | Defensive | Chris Wagner |
| Mar 2, 2024 | 2 | 05:09 | Offensive | Chris Wagner |
| Mar 2, 2024 | 1 | 15:18 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |