Scouting Report
Chris Wagner holds a +1.7% FO% edge overall. Wagner wins 44.0% vs left-shot opponents — Novak shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Wagner 47.1% vs Novak 45.0% (+1.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Novak 75.6%
Defensive zone
Wagner 74.2%
Neutral zone
Novak 57.8%
Result
Tommy Novak favored at 75.6%
24.4%
75.6%
Wagner
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Wagner
Novak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Novak
0
1
Wagner
Novak
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Wagner
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
41.6% (77)
42.9% (198)
-1.3%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Wagner is 44.0% vs left-shot opponents (91).
Wagner shoots right. Novak is 39.4% vs right-shot opponents (94).
Home / Away
Wagner
Novak
Home
46.3% (54)
40.9% (110)
Away
42.6% (54)
44.5% (110)
By Period
Wagner
Novak
P1
48.6%
39.1%
P2
55.9%
43.9%
P3
30.8%
44.9%
Final 5 min
40.0%
25.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Wagner
40.0%▼
49.5%
44.4%
Novak
40.0%▼
42.0%
42.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 14, 2024 | 2 | 16:06 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |