Scouting Report
Derek Ryan holds a +2.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Dvorak on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Dvorak wins 53.2% vs right-shot opponents — Ryan shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dvorak 53.1% vs Ryan 55.2% (-2.2%)
H2H factor
Ryan leads 11-11 in 22 meetings
Offensive zone
Dvorak 57.2%
Defensive zone
Dvorak 54.4%
Neutral zone
Dvorak 51.2%
Result
Christian Dvorak favored at 54.4%
54.4%
45.6%
Dvorak
Ryan
Head-to-Head Record
11
-
11
(22 meetings)
11
11
Dvorak
Ryan
Last 10: Dvorak 5-5 Ryan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Ryan
4
5
Dvorak
Ryan
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dvorak
4
1
Dvorak
Ryan
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Ryan
3
5
Dvorak
Ryan
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dvorak
Ryan
Edge
Even Strength
53.0% (6,743)
56.6% (4,102)
-3.6%
Power Play
55.7% (1,005)
53.2% (342)
+2.5%
Penalty Kill
51.0% (887)
47.8% (649)
+3.2%
On even strength, Ryan has a +3.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Ryan shoots right. Dvorak is 53.2% vs right-shot opponents (3,076).
Dvorak shoots left. Ryan is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (3,676).
Home / Away
Dvorak
Ryan
Home
54.7% (4,115)
56.2% (2,559)
Away
51.7% (4,520)
54.4% (2,534)
By Period
Dvorak
Ryan
P1
54.5%
55.1%
P2
51.8%
54.7%
P3
53.0%
56.0%
OT
56.9%
58.3%
Final 5 min
51.5%
52.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dvorak
40.0%▼
52.0%
53.1%
Ryan
52.0%▼
60.0%
55.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 18, 2024 | 3 | 16:52 | Neutral | Christian Dvorak |
| Nov 18, 2024 | 3 | 05:52 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Feb 12, 2023 | 3 | 02:27 | Neutral | Christian Dvorak |
| Feb 12, 2023 | 1 | 08:14 | Neutral | Christian Dvorak |
| Feb 12, 2023 | 1 | 05:44 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Mar 6, 2020 | 2 | 08:23 | Offensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Dec 10, 2019 | 3 | 16:35 | Offensive | Derek Ryan |
| Nov 16, 2019 | 3 | 01:14 | Defensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Nov 16, 2019 | 2 | 09:24 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Nov 5, 2019 | 3 | 15:45 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Mar 7, 2019 | 3 | 16:29 | Offensive | Derek Ryan |
| Mar 7, 2019 | 3 | 12:34 | Offensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Mar 7, 2019 | 2 | 10:16 | Offensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Mar 7, 2019 | 2 | 01:40 | Offensive | Derek Ryan |
| Mar 7, 2019 | 1 | 12:18 | Offensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Mar 7, 2019 | 1 | 02:44 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Mar 5, 2017 | 3 | 15:34 | Offensive | Derek Ryan |
| Mar 5, 2017 | 2 | 12:13 | Defensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Mar 5, 2017 | 1 | 03:31 | Defensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Mar 3, 2017 | 2 | 15:34 | Defensive | Christian Dvorak |