Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +1.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dvorak 51.8% vs Pavelski 53.0% (-1.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 55.2%
Defensive zone
Dvorak 77.2%
Neutral zone
Dvorak 61.8%
Result
Christian Dvorak favored at 61.0%
61.0%
39.0%
Dvorak
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Dvorak
Pavelski
Last 8: Dvorak 3-5 Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
0
4
Dvorak
Pavelski
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dvorak
3
1
Dvorak
Pavelski
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dvorak
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
52.2% (686)
52.3% (560)
-0.1%
Power Play
49.0% (104)
57.5% (113)
-8.5%
Penalty Kill
53.5% (127)
62.5% (16)
-9.0%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +9.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. Dvorak is 49.1% vs right-shot opponents (342).
Dvorak shoots left. Pavelski is 52.0% vs left-shot opponents (513).
Home / Away
Dvorak
Pavelski
Home
54.1% (423)
54.2% (360)
Away
50.2% (494)
52.6% (329)
By Period
Dvorak
Pavelski
P1
51.4%
54.5%
P2
52.0%
56.7%
P3
52.4%
50.8%
OT
60.0%
30.8%
Final 5 min
49.6%
51.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dvorak
40.0%▼
52.0%
52.0%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
53.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 23, 2022 | 3 | 13:43 | Defensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Dec 23, 2022 | 3 | 00:29 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 23, 2022 | 2 | 14:13 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 23, 2022 | 2 | 10:28 | Defensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Dec 23, 2022 | 2 | 03:35 | Defensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Dec 23, 2022 | 1 | 16:58 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 23, 2022 | 1 | 09:53 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 22, 2022 | 2 | 07:56 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |