Scouting Report
Christian Dvorak holds a +7.5% FO% edge overall. Dvorak wins 53.7% vs left-shot opponents — Novak shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dvorak 51.8% vs Novak 45.6% (+7.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Novak 75.6%
Defensive zone
Novak 50.8%
Neutral zone
Novak 57.6%
Result
Tommy Novak favored at 59.0%
41.0%
59.0%
Dvorak
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Dvorak
Novak
Last 8: Dvorak 3-5 Novak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Novak
0
1
Dvorak
Novak
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Novak
0
1
Dvorak
Novak
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
3
3
Dvorak
Novak
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dvorak
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
52.2% (686)
43.8% (384)
+8.4%
Power Play
49.0% (104)
58.8% (17)
-9.8%
Penalty Kill
53.5% (127)
100.0% (1)
-46.5%
On penalty kill, Novak has a +46.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Dvorak is 53.7% vs left-shot opponents (575).
Dvorak shoots left. Novak is 43.9% vs left-shot opponents (253).
Home / Away
Dvorak
Novak
Home
54.1% (423)
46.5% (202)
Away
50.2% (494)
42.5% (200)
By Period
Dvorak
Novak
P1
51.4%
49.2%
P2
52.0%
44.2%
P3
52.4%
40.0%
OT
60.0%
100.0%
Final 5 min
49.6%
52.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dvorak
40.0%▼
52.0%
52.0%
Novak
40.0%▼
42.0%
44.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 12, 2023 | 3 | 06:15 | Neutral | Christian Dvorak |
| Jan 12, 2023 | 1 | 15:25 | Defensive | Tommy Novak |
| Jan 3, 2023 | 3 | 16:59 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Jan 3, 2023 | 2 | 18:04 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Jan 3, 2023 | 2 | 17:48 | Neutral | Christian Dvorak |
| Jan 3, 2023 | 2 | 01:12 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Jan 3, 2023 | 1 | 10:50 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Jan 3, 2023 | 1 | 10:42 | Neutral | Christian Dvorak |