Scouting Report
Christian Dvorak holds a +11.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Novak on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Dvorak wins 54.2% vs left-shot opponents — Novak shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dvorak 52.9% vs Novak 43.4% (+11.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Novak 64.4%
Defensive zone
Dvorak 71.8%
Neutral zone
Dvorak 50.8%
Result
Christian Dvorak favored at 55.3%
55.3%
44.7%
Dvorak
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Dvorak
Novak
Last 6: Dvorak 3-3 Novak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Novak
0
1
Dvorak
Novak
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dvorak
2
0
Dvorak
Novak
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Novak
1
2
Dvorak
Novak
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dvorak
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
53.7% (762)
41.4% (379)
+12.3%
Power Play
54.0% (124)
46.9% (32)
+7.1%
On even strength, Dvorak has a +12.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Dvorak is 54.2% vs left-shot opponents (631).
Dvorak shoots left. Novak is 41.7% vs left-shot opponents (271).
Home / Away
Dvorak
Novak
Home
53.6% (461)
42.6% (195)
Away
52.9% (507)
41.2% (216)
By Period
Dvorak
Novak
P1
54.1%
42.4%
P2
52.9%
39.2%
P3
53.8%
44.7%
OT
36.4%
33.3%
Final 5 min
46.3%
40.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dvorak
40.0%▼
52.0%
53.2%
Novak
40.0%▼
42.0%
41.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2026 | 3 | 10:44 | Defensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 2 | 10:03 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 1 | 00:49 | Neutral | Christian Dvorak |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 1 | 00:37 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Dec 1, 2025 | 2 | 18:30 | Defensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 1 | 16:19 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |