Scouting Report
Claude Giroux holds a +10.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Nelson wins 39.8% vs right-shot opponents — Giroux shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 43.7% vs Giroux 52.7% (-10.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Giroux 93.1%
Defensive zone
Giroux 68.0%
Neutral zone
Giroux 81.4%
Result
Claude Giroux favored at 82.5%
17.5%
82.5%
Nelson
Giroux
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
2
(8 meetings)
6
2
Nelson
Giroux
Last 8: Nelson 6-2 Giroux
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
1
Nelson
Giroux
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Nelson
Giroux
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
3
0
Nelson
Giroux
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Giroux
Edge
Even Strength
42.1% (385)
52.3% (1,257)
-10.2%
Power Play
47.5% (40)
54.9% (377)
-7.4%
Penalty Kill
38.5% (26)
52.4% (126)
-13.9%
On penalty kill, Giroux has a +13.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Giroux shoots right. Nelson is 39.8% vs right-shot opponents (196).
Nelson shoots left. Giroux is 52.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,155).
Home / Away
Nelson
Giroux
Home
43.8% (224)
56.0% (868)
Away
41.0% (227)
49.9% (892)
By Period
Nelson
Giroux
P1
48.1%
53.4%
P2
38.4%
54.0%
P3
39.2%
52.0%
OT
75.0%
41.4%
Final 5 min
41.4%
52.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
42.4%
Giroux
66.0%▲
58.5%
52.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 20, 2014 | OT | 02:55 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 20, 2014 | 2 | 09:26 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 20, 2014 | 1 | 01:10 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 18, 2014 | 2 | 18:41 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 18, 2014 | 2 | 02:55 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 18, 2014 | 1 | 14:43 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 18, 2014 | 1 | 10:40 | Defensive | Claude Giroux |
| Nov 23, 2013 | 1 | 19:57 | Offensive | Claude Giroux |