Scouting Report
Jake Evans holds a +3.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Schwindt on neutral-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Schwindt wins 40.0% vs right-shot opponents — Evans shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Schwindt 49.0% vs Evans 52.2% (-3.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Schwindt 72.2%
Defensive zone
Evans 84.1%
Neutral zone
Evans 65.8%
Result
Jake Evans favored at 61.4%
38.6%
61.4%
Schwindt
Evans
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
4
(9 meetings)
5
4
Schwindt
Evans
Last 9: Schwindt 5-4 Evans
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Schwindt
2
0
Schwindt
Evans
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Evans
0
2
Schwindt
Evans
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Schwindt
3
2
Schwindt
Evans
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Schwindt
Evans
Edge
Even Strength
48.1% (370)
53.8% (3,695)
-5.7%
Power Play
66.7% (6)
60.0% (70)
+6.7%
Penalty Kill
56.3% (16)
47.1% (1,222)
+9.2%
On penalty kill, Schwindt has a +9.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Evans shoots right. Schwindt is 40.0% vs right-shot opponents (140).
Schwindt shoots right. Evans is 52.6% vs right-shot opponents (1,292).
Home / Away
Schwindt
Evans
Home
45.5% (213)
53.4% (2,593)
Away
52.5% (179)
51.0% (2,394)
By Period
Schwindt
Evans
P1
51.8%
54.0%
P2
48.6%
50.9%
P3
46.2%
52.0%
Final 5 min
54.2%
50.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Schwindt
44.0%▼
47.0%
48.7%
Evans
54.0%▼
60.5%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 31, 2024 | 3 | 02:25 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Dec 31, 2024 | 2 | 06:09 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Dec 31, 2024 | 1 | 19:48 | Neutral | Cole Schwindt |
| Dec 31, 2024 | 1 | 02:23 | Neutral | Cole Schwindt |
| Apr 29, 2022 | 2 | 11:57 | Offensive | Cole Schwindt |
| Apr 29, 2022 | 2 | 11:42 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Apr 29, 2022 | 2 | 01:33 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Apr 29, 2022 | 1 | 04:45 | Offensive | Cole Schwindt |
| Apr 29, 2022 | 1 | 04:30 | Neutral | Cole Schwindt |