Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +10.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Sillinger wins 42.9% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Sillinger 45.0% vs Hertl 54.5% (-10.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Sillinger 78.6%
Defensive zone
Sillinger 74.0%
Neutral zone
Sillinger 77.7%
Result
Cole Sillinger favored at 77.0%
77.0%
23.0%
Sillinger
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
6
(8 meetings)
2
6
Sillinger
Hertl
Last 8: Sillinger 2-6 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
2
Sillinger
Hertl
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Sillinger
Hertl
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
3
Sillinger
Hertl
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Sillinger
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
44.6% (639)
54.1% (1,117)
-9.5%
Power Play
54.3% (35)
59.8% (296)
-5.5%
Penalty Kill
18.2% (22)
34.4% (32)
-16.2%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +16.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Sillinger is 42.9% vs left-shot opponents (452).
Sillinger shoots left. Hertl is 50.7% vs left-shot opponents (883).
Home / Away
Sillinger
Hertl
Home
45.5% (365)
54.3% (709)
Away
42.9% (331)
55.3% (736)
By Period
Sillinger
Hertl
P1
42.5%
51.6%
P2
43.9%
53.6%
P3
46.3%
58.6%
Final 5 min
45.2%
54.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Sillinger
44.0%▲
40.5%
44.3%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2023 | 3 | 00:54 | Defensive | Cole Sillinger |
| Mar 14, 2023 | 3 | 00:36 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 14, 2023 | 2 | 19:59 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 14, 2023 | 2 | 01:53 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 14, 2023 | 1 | 13:52 | Neutral | Cole Sillinger |
| Mar 14, 2023 | 1 | 13:41 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 21, 2023 | 1 | 10:11 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 21, 2023 | 1 | 10:06 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |