Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +9.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Sillinger wins 44.9% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Sillinger 46.7% vs Hertl 55.4% (-9.7%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 7-3 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Sillinger 60.1%
Defensive zone
Sillinger 88.9%
Neutral zone
Sillinger 76.4%
Result
Cole Sillinger favored at 73.3%
73.3%
26.7%
Sillinger
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
7
(10 meetings)
3
7
Sillinger
Hertl
Last 10: Sillinger 3-7 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
2
3
Sillinger
Hertl
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
3
Sillinger
Hertl
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Sillinger
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Sillinger
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
46.5% (535)
54.1% (717)
-7.6%
Power Play
46.7% (30)
61.9% (210)
-15.2%
Penalty Kill
43.5% (85)
58.1% (31)
-14.6%
On power play, Hertl has a +15.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Sillinger is 44.9% vs left-shot opponents (441).
Sillinger shoots left. Hertl is 55.5% vs left-shot opponents (596).
Home / Away
Sillinger
Hertl
Home
48.7% (339)
58.1% (492)
Away
43.4% (311)
53.6% (466)
By Period
Sillinger
Hertl
P1
46.3%
57.1%
P2
47.9%
54.0%
P3
44.0%
56.6%
OT
50.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
49.7%
53.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Sillinger
44.0%▲
40.5%
46.2%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
55.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 30, 2025 | OT | 00:23 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 30, 2025 | 3 | 08:53 | Defensive | Cole Sillinger |
| Jan 30, 2025 | 3 | 05:01 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 30, 2025 | 2 | 16:15 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 30, 2025 | 2 | 12:20 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 30, 2025 | 2 | 05:09 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 30, 2025 | 2 | 01:09 | Offensive | Cole Sillinger |
| Jan 30, 2025 | 1 | 12:32 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 30, 2025 | 1 | 05:27 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 30, 2025 | 1 | 04:22 | Offensive | Cole Sillinger |