Scouting Report
Ryan Donato holds a +4.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Donato on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Blackwell wins 39.8% vs left-shot opponents — Donato shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Blackwell 44.7% vs Donato 48.1% (-4.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Donato 70.8%
Defensive zone
Blackwell 84.9%
Neutral zone
Blackwell 72.7%
Result
Colin Blackwell favored at 61.9%
61.9%
38.1%
Blackwell
Donato
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
3
(4 meetings)
1
3
Blackwell
Donato
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Donato
0
1
Blackwell
Donato
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Donato
1
2
Blackwell
Donato
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Blackwell
Donato
Edge
Even Strength
48.3% (172)
48.1% (258)
+0.2%
Power Play
0.0% (2)
43.2% (37)
-43.2%
On power play, Donato has a +43.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Donato shoots left. Blackwell is 39.8% vs left-shot opponents (216).
Blackwell shoots right. Donato is 53.2% vs right-shot opponents (126).
Home / Away
Blackwell
Donato
Home
43.8% (144)
45.8% (142)
Away
41.1% (112)
49.0% (153)
By Period
Blackwell
Donato
P1
45.3%
48.1%
P2
36.1%
46.6%
P3
46.0%
46.8%
Final 5 min
49.3%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Blackwell
44.0%▬
44.5%
42.6%
Donato
46.0%▼
48.5%
47.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2026 | 2 | 15:32 | Neutral | Colin Blackwell |
| Mar 8, 2026 | 1 | 08:41 | Neutral | Ryan Donato |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 2 | 18:00 | Offensive | Ryan Donato |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Donato |