Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +14.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Bedard on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Bedard wins 40.8% vs left-shot opponents — Staal shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bedard 41.3% vs Staal 55.3% (-14.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Staal 66.5%
Defensive zone
Staal 80.5%
Neutral zone
Staal 77.7%
Result
Jordan Staal favored at 74.9%
25.1%
74.9%
Bedard
Staal
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Bedard
Staal
Last 7: Bedard 4-3 Staal
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Bedard
Staal
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Staal
0
1
Bedard
Staal
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bedard
3
1
Bedard
Staal
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bedard
Staal
Edge
Even Strength
40.1% (1,580)
55.9% (14,620)
-15.8%
Power Play
51.9% (77)
62.7% (1,745)
-10.8%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (24)
48.0% (2,896)
+2.0%
On even strength, Staal has a +15.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Staal shoots left. Bedard is 40.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,213).
Bedard shoots right. Staal is 58.8% vs right-shot opponents (6,553).
Home / Away
Bedard
Staal
Home
43.3% (785)
56.4% (9,663)
Away
38.5% (896)
54.3% (9,663)
By Period
Bedard
Staal
P1
39.0%
55.2%
P2
40.7%
55.9%
P3
42.6%
54.9%
OT
42.9%
56.2%
Final 5 min
44.9%
56.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bedard
46.0%▲
42.5%
40.7%
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
55.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 20, 2025 | 3 | 15:17 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 20, 2025 | 2 | 17:05 | Offensive | Connor Bedard |
| Apr 14, 2024 | 3 | 06:45 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Apr 14, 2024 | 3 | 06:24 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Feb 19, 2024 | 2 | 08:52 | Neutral | Connor Bedard |
| Feb 19, 2024 | 2 | 08:41 | Neutral | Connor Bedard |
| Feb 19, 2024 | 2 | 08:22 | Neutral | Connor Bedard |