Scouting Report
Connor Bedard holds a +4.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Carlsson on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Bedard wins 39.6% vs left-shot opponents — Carlsson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bedard 40.7% vs Carlsson 37.1% (+4.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Carlsson 61.5%
Defensive zone
Carlsson 64.8%
Neutral zone
Carlsson 60.3%
Result
Leo Carlsson favored at 62.4%
37.6%
62.4%
Bedard
Carlsson
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
6
(8 meetings)
2
6
Bedard
Carlsson
Last 8: Bedard 2-6 Carlsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Carlsson
1
2
Bedard
Carlsson
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carlsson
0
3
Bedard
Carlsson
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Bedard
Carlsson
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bedard
Carlsson
Edge
Even Strength
38.9% (512)
34.4% (535)
+4.5%
Power Play
43.8% (16)
42.9% (21)
+0.9%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (4)
40.0% (5)
-15.0%
On penalty kill, Carlsson has a +15.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carlsson shoots left. Bedard is 39.6% vs left-shot opponents (384).
Bedard shoots right. Carlsson is 33.5% vs right-shot opponents (167).
Home / Away
Bedard
Carlsson
Home
40.2% (246)
38.6% (254)
Away
37.8% (286)
31.6% (307)
By Period
Bedard
Carlsson
P1
39.9%
35.9%
P2
38.5%
33.8%
P3
39.0%
34.3%
OT
25.0%
44.4%
Final 5 min
46.7%
36.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bedard
46.0%▲
42.5%
38.9%
Carlsson
38.0%▼
39.5%
34.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2024 | 2 | 15:13 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Mar 21, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor Bedard |
| Mar 21, 2024 | 1 | 14:16 | Offensive | Connor Bedard |
| Mar 21, 2024 | 1 | 07:50 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Mar 21, 2024 | 1 | 05:19 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Mar 21, 2024 | 1 | 00:15 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Mar 21, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 2 | 12:26 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |