Scouting Report
Leo Carlsson holds a +3.1% FO% edge overall. Bedard wins 37.9% vs left-shot opponents — Carlsson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bedard 39.8% vs Carlsson 42.4% (-3.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Carlsson 54.5%
Defensive zone
Bedard 56.9%
Neutral zone
Carlsson 52.6%
Result
Leo Carlsson favored at 52.6%
47.4%
52.6%
Bedard
Carlsson
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Bedard
Carlsson
Last 6: Bedard 3-3 Carlsson
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Even
3
3
Bedard
Carlsson
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bedard
Carlsson
Edge
Even Strength
38.0% (618)
41.8% (648)
-3.8%
Power Play
38.7% (31)
37.3% (51)
+1.4%
Penalty Kill
57.1% (7)
38.7% (31)
+18.4%
On penalty kill, Bedard has a +18.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carlsson shoots left. Bedard is 37.9% vs left-shot opponents (485).
Bedard shoots right. Carlsson is 41.6% vs right-shot opponents (185).
Home / Away
Bedard
Carlsson
Home
40.5% (316)
44.5% (362)
Away
36.2% (340)
38.3% (368)
By Period
Bedard
Carlsson
P1
37.2%
46.3%
P2
36.9%
35.1%
P3
40.7%
43.9%
OT
50.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
43.4%
43.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bedard
46.0%▲
42.5%
38.3%
Carlsson
38.0%▼
39.5%
41.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1, 2025 | 3 | 17:16 | Neutral | Connor Bedard |
| Mar 1, 2025 | 3 | 14:10 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Mar 1, 2025 | 3 | 10:56 | Neutral | Connor Bedard |
| Mar 1, 2025 | 2 | 08:33 | Neutral | Connor Bedard |
| Nov 3, 2024 | 3 | 10:16 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 3, 2024 | 2 | 15:13 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |