Scouting Report
Connor Bedard holds a +1.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Carlsson on neutral-zone draws (57% H2H, 7 meetings). Bedard wins 46.2% vs left-shot opponents — Carlsson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bedard 46.7% vs Carlsson 45.0% (+1.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Carlsson 52.6%
Defensive zone
Bedard 51.1%
Neutral zone
Carlsson 61.6%
Result
Leo Carlsson favored at 58.8%
41.2%
58.8%
Bedard
Carlsson
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
5
(9 meetings)
4
5
Bedard
Carlsson
Last 9: Bedard 4-5 Carlsson
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Bedard
Carlsson
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carlsson
3
4
Bedard
Carlsson
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bedard
Carlsson
Edge
Even Strength
44.2% (450)
45.5% (661)
-1.3%
Power Play
70.0% (30)
46.3% (82)
+23.7%
Penalty Kill
53.8% (13)
33.3% (84)
+20.5%
On power play, Bedard has a +23.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carlsson shoots left. Bedard is 46.2% vs left-shot opponents (344).
Bedard shoots right. Carlsson is 47.0% vs right-shot opponents (287).
Home / Away
Bedard
Carlsson
Home
50.7% (223)
42.5% (428)
Away
42.2% (270)
46.4% (399)
By Period
Bedard
Carlsson
P1
40.8%
45.4%
P2
48.2%
39.7%
P3
48.0%
48.5%
OT
57.1%
41.7%
Final 5 min
45.3%
39.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bedard
46.0%▲
42.5%
46.0%
Carlsson
38.0%▼
39.5%
44.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 7, 2025 | 3 | 07:29 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor Bedard |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 30, 2025 | 3 | 17:09 | Defensive | Connor Bedard |
| Nov 30, 2025 | 3 | 02:40 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 30, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor Bedard |
| Nov 30, 2025 | 2 | 06:28 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 30, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor Bedard |
| Oct 19, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |