Connor Bedard vs Michael McCarron
2024-25 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Michael McCarron holds a +16.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Bedard on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Bedard wins 39.2% vs right-shot opponents — McCarron shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bedard 39.8% vs McCarron 54.0% (-16.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Bedard 71.2%
Defensive zone
McCarron 82.3%
Neutral zone
McCarron 54.2%
Result
Michael McCarron favored at 51.7%
48.3%
51.7%
Bedard
McCarron
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
Bedard
McCarron
Last 8: Bedard 4-4 McCarron
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Bedard
2
1
Bedard
McCarron
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McCarron
0
2
Bedard
McCarron
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bedard
2
1
Bedard
McCarron
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bedard
McCarron
Edge
Even Strength
38.0% (618)
54.2% (756)
-16.2%
Power Play
38.7% (31)
55.6% (9)
-16.9%
Penalty Kill
57.1% (7)
55.1% (158)
+2.0%
On power play, McCarron has a +16.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McCarron shoots right. Bedard is 39.2% vs right-shot opponents (171).
Bedard shoots right. McCarron is 53.0% vs right-shot opponents (249).
Home / Away
Bedard
McCarron
Home
40.5% (316)
54.6% (445)
Away
36.2% (340)
54.2% (478)
By Period
Bedard
McCarron
P1
37.2%
53.6%
P2
36.9%
55.6%
P3
40.7%
53.7%
OT
50.0%
100.0%
Final 5 min
43.4%
53.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bedard
46.0%▲
42.5%
38.3%
McCarron
48.0%▬
48.5%
54.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2025 | 3 | 13:09 | Offensive | Michael McCarron |
| Mar 8, 2025 | 3 | 10:01 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |
| Mar 8, 2025 | 2 | 13:46 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Feb 7, 2025 | 3 | 01:28 | Offensive | Connor Bedard |
| Feb 7, 2025 | 1 | 05:37 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Jan 16, 2025 | 2 | 07:33 | Offensive | Connor Bedard |
| Oct 25, 2024 | 3 | 13:07 | Neutral | Connor Bedard |
| Oct 25, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor Bedard |