Connor Bedard vs Michael McCarron
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Michael McCarron holds a +6.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Bedard on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Bedard wins 45.6% vs right-shot opponents — McCarron shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bedard 46.7% vs McCarron 52.5% (-6.8%)
H2H factor
McCarron leads 8-6 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Bedard 85.7%
Defensive zone
McCarron 68.6%
Neutral zone
Bedard 53.8%
Result
Connor Bedard favored at 58.8%
58.8%
41.2%
Bedard
McCarron
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
8
(14 meetings)
6
8
Bedard
McCarron
Last 10: Bedard 3-7 McCarron
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Bedard
5
0
Bedard
McCarron
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McCarron
1
3
Bedard
McCarron
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McCarron
0
5
Bedard
McCarron
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bedard
McCarron
Edge
Even Strength
44.2% (450)
53.1% (672)
-8.9%
Power Play
70.0% (30)
18.2% (11)
+51.8%
Penalty Kill
53.8% (13)
53.7% (205)
+0.1%
On power play, Bedard has a +51.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McCarron shoots right. Bedard is 45.6% vs right-shot opponents (149).
Bedard shoots right. McCarron is 49.1% vs right-shot opponents (265).
Home / Away
Bedard
McCarron
Home
50.7% (223)
52.8% (477)
Away
42.2% (270)
52.8% (411)
By Period
Bedard
McCarron
P1
40.8%
56.5%
P2
48.2%
53.2%
P3
48.0%
49.0%
OT
57.1%
0.0%
Final 5 min
45.3%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bedard
46.0%▲
42.5%
46.0%
McCarron
48.0%▬
48.5%
52.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19, 2026 | 1 | 10:08 | Offensive | Connor Bedard |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 3 | 04:48 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 1 | 18:30 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 3 | 09:44 | Offensive | Connor Bedard |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 3 | 07:12 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 3 | 01:25 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 1 | 03:26 | Offensive | Connor Bedard |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 3 | 15:53 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 3 | 02:36 | Offensive | Connor Bedard |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 2 | 19:03 | Defensive | Connor Bedard |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 2 | 01:46 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 1 | 02:28 | Offensive | Connor Bedard |