Scouting Report
Mikael Backlund holds a +10.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Backlund on offensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Bedard wins 37.9% vs left-shot opponents — Backlund shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bedard 39.8% vs Backlund 48.5% (-10.1%)
H2H factor
Backlund leads 12-7 in 19 meetings
Offensive zone
Bedard 80.6%
Defensive zone
Bedard 62.8%
Neutral zone
Bedard 76.2%
Result
Connor Bedard favored at 73.4%
73.4%
26.6%
Bedard
Backlund
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
12
(19 meetings)
7
12
Bedard
Backlund
Last 10: Bedard 5-5 Backlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
1
5
Bedard
Backlund
6 total
Defensive Zone
Even
3
3
Bedard
Backlund
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Backlund
3
4
Bedard
Backlund
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bedard
Backlund
Edge
Even Strength
38.0% (618)
50.4% (1,032)
-12.4%
Power Play
38.7% (31)
52.3% (107)
-13.6%
Penalty Kill
57.1% (7)
40.6% (313)
+16.5%
On penalty kill, Bedard has a +16.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Backlund shoots left. Bedard is 37.9% vs left-shot opponents (485).
Bedard shoots right. Backlund is 50.0% vs right-shot opponents (438).
Home / Away
Bedard
Backlund
Home
40.5% (316)
48.7% (749)
Away
36.2% (340)
48.1% (703)
By Period
Bedard
Backlund
P1
37.2%
50.4%
P2
36.9%
50.1%
P3
40.7%
45.8%
OT
50.0%
30.8%
Final 5 min
43.4%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bedard
46.0%▲
42.5%
38.3%
Backlund
52.0%▲
48.0%
48.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 13, 2025 | 2 | 12:26 | Offensive | Connor Bedard |
| Jan 13, 2025 | 2 | 07:58 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 13, 2025 | 1 | 13:26 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 13, 2025 | 1 | 00:29 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 21, 2024 | 3 | 11:30 | Neutral | Connor Bedard |
| Dec 21, 2024 | 3 | 05:31 | Defensive | Connor Bedard |
| Dec 21, 2024 | 3 | 05:28 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 21, 2024 | 3 | 03:15 | Defensive | Connor Bedard |
| Dec 21, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor Bedard |
| Dec 21, 2024 | 2 | 17:09 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 21, 2024 | 2 | 14:01 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 21, 2024 | 1 | 06:10 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 21, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Oct 15, 2024 | 3 | 08:40 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Oct 15, 2024 | 3 | 02:49 | Defensive | Connor Bedard |
| Oct 15, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor Bedard |
| Oct 15, 2024 | 2 | 18:18 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Oct 15, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Oct 15, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |