Scouting Report
Mikael Backlund holds a +3.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Backlund on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Bedard wins 46.2% vs left-shot opponents — Backlund shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bedard 46.7% vs Backlund 49.7% (-3.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Bedard 72.3%
Defensive zone
Backlund 81.5%
Neutral zone
Backlund 65.2%
Result
Mikael Backlund favored at 58.1%
41.9%
58.1%
Bedard
Backlund
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
4
(9 meetings)
5
4
Bedard
Backlund
Last 9: Bedard 5-4 Backlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
0
3
Bedard
Backlund
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bedard
3
0
Bedard
Backlund
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bedard
2
1
Bedard
Backlund
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bedard
Backlund
Edge
Even Strength
44.2% (450)
50.1% (891)
-5.9%
Power Play
70.0% (30)
53.1% (64)
+16.9%
Penalty Kill
53.8% (13)
47.8% (278)
+6.0%
On power play, Bedard has a +16.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Backlund shoots left. Bedard is 46.2% vs left-shot opponents (344).
Bedard shoots right. Backlund is 49.2% vs right-shot opponents (362).
Home / Away
Bedard
Backlund
Home
50.7% (223)
48.1% (580)
Away
42.2% (270)
51.1% (653)
By Period
Bedard
Backlund
P1
40.8%
45.1%
P2
48.2%
54.7%
P3
48.0%
49.0%
OT
57.1%
46.2%
Final 5 min
45.3%
47.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bedard
46.0%▲
42.5%
46.0%
Backlund
52.0%▲
48.0%
49.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 18, 2025 | 3 | 18:22 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 18, 2025 | 3 | 10:48 | Neutral | Connor Bedard |
| Nov 18, 2025 | 2 | 19:01 | Defensive | Connor Bedard |
| Nov 18, 2025 | 1 | 15:05 | Neutral | Connor Bedard |
| Nov 7, 2025 | 3 | 03:40 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 7, 2025 | 2 | 17:57 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 7, 2025 | 2 | 01:00 | Defensive | Connor Bedard |
| Nov 7, 2025 | 1 | 10:16 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 7, 2025 | 1 | 01:03 | Defensive | Connor Bedard |