Scouting Report
Morgan Frost holds a +10.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Bedard on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Bedard wins 46.2% vs left-shot opponents — Frost shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bedard 46.9% vs Frost 55.7% (-10.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Frost 94.1%
Defensive zone
Frost 69.8%
Neutral zone
Frost 87.2%
Result
Morgan Frost favored at 81.7%
18.3%
81.7%
Bedard
Frost
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Bedard
Frost
Last 7: Bedard 5-2 Frost
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Bedard
2
0
Bedard
Frost
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bedard
2
1
Bedard
Frost
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Bedard
Frost
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bedard
Frost
Edge
Even Strength
44.4% (437)
55.0% (686)
-10.6%
Power Play
71.4% (28)
60.8% (166)
+10.6%
Penalty Kill
53.8% (13)
100.0% (5)
-46.2%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +46.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Frost shoots left. Bedard is 46.2% vs left-shot opponents (333).
Bedard shoots right. Frost is 54.9% vs right-shot opponents (286).
Home / Away
Bedard
Frost
Home
51.4% (208)
56.1% (428)
Away
42.2% (270)
56.6% (429)
By Period
Bedard
Frost
P1
40.7%
58.9%
P2
48.1%
55.4%
P3
48.5%
54.1%
OT
66.7%
70.0%
Final 5 min
44.7%
51.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bedard
48.0%▲
43.0%
46.2%
Frost
66.0%▲
60.0%
56.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 18, 2025 | 3 | 18:57 | Defensive | Connor Bedard |
| Nov 18, 2025 | 2 | 06:03 | Defensive | Connor Bedard |
| Nov 18, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor Bedard |
| Nov 18, 2025 | 1 | 06:06 | Offensive | Connor Bedard |
| Nov 18, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Nov 7, 2025 | 3 | 17:23 | Offensive | Connor Bedard |
| Nov 7, 2025 | 2 | 04:34 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |