Scouting Report
Morgan Frost holds a +9.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Frost on neutral-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Bedard wins 40.8% vs left-shot opponents — Frost shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bedard 41.3% vs Frost 50.3% (-9.6%)
H2H factor
Frost leads 6-6 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Frost 64.9%
Defensive zone
Bedard 72.0%
Neutral zone
Frost 52.1%
Result
Connor Bedard favored at 53.8%
53.8%
46.2%
Bedard
Frost
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
6
(12 meetings)
6
6
Bedard
Frost
Last 10: Bedard 5-5 Frost
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Bedard
2
0
Bedard
Frost
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bedard
3
1
Bedard
Frost
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Frost
1
5
Bedard
Frost
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bedard
Frost
Edge
Even Strength
40.1% (1,580)
49.4% (3,598)
-9.3%
Power Play
51.9% (77)
55.5% (625)
-3.6%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (24)
52.8% (36)
-2.8%
On even strength, Frost has a +9.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Frost shoots left. Bedard is 40.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,213).
Bedard shoots right. Frost is 49.8% vs right-shot opponents (1,477).
Home / Away
Bedard
Frost
Home
43.3% (785)
51.0% (2,047)
Away
38.5% (896)
49.7% (2,212)
By Period
Bedard
Frost
P1
39.0%
50.8%
P2
40.7%
51.1%
P3
42.6%
48.5%
OT
42.9%
66.7%
Final 5 min
44.9%
48.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bedard
46.0%▲
42.5%
40.7%
Frost
62.0%▲
59.0%
50.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 18, 2025 | 3 | 18:57 | Defensive | Connor Bedard |
| Nov 18, 2025 | 2 | 06:03 | Defensive | Connor Bedard |
| Nov 18, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor Bedard |
| Nov 18, 2025 | 1 | 06:06 | Offensive | Connor Bedard |
| Nov 18, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Nov 7, 2025 | 3 | 17:23 | Offensive | Connor Bedard |
| Nov 7, 2025 | 2 | 04:34 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Nov 23, 2024 | 2 | 15:13 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Feb 21, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Feb 21, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Feb 21, 2024 | 1 | 16:28 | Defensive | Connor Bedard |
| Feb 21, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |