Scouting Report
Morgan Frost holds a +10.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Frost on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Bedard wins 39.6% vs left-shot opponents — Frost shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bedard 40.7% vs Frost 49.5% (-10.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Bedard 50.4%
Defensive zone
Bedard 78.9%
Neutral zone
Bedard 65.8%
Result
Connor Bedard favored at 69.1%
69.1%
30.9%
Bedard
Frost
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
3
(4 meetings)
1
3
Bedard
Frost
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bedard
1
0
Bedard
Frost
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Frost
0
3
Bedard
Frost
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bedard
Frost
Edge
Even Strength
38.9% (512)
48.6% (704)
-9.7%
Power Play
43.8% (16)
55.7% (115)
-11.9%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (4)
25.0% (4)
+0.0%
On power play, Frost has a +11.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Frost shoots left. Bedard is 39.6% vs left-shot opponents (384).
Bedard shoots right. Frost is 53.5% vs right-shot opponents (331).
Home / Away
Bedard
Frost
Home
40.2% (246)
49.9% (399)
Away
37.8% (286)
49.1% (424)
By Period
Bedard
Frost
P1
39.9%
51.2%
P2
38.5%
53.9%
P3
39.0%
42.7%
OT
25.0%
40.0%
Final 5 min
46.7%
50.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bedard
46.0%▲
42.5%
38.9%
Frost
62.0%▲
59.0%
49.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 21, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Feb 21, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Feb 21, 2024 | 1 | 16:28 | Defensive | Connor Bedard |
| Feb 21, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |