Scouting Report
Robert Thomas holds a +5.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Thomas on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Bedard wins 45.6% vs right-shot opponents — Thomas shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bedard 46.7% vs Thomas 51.7% (-5.9%)
H2H factor
Thomas leads 7-5 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Bedard 57.8%
Defensive zone
Bedard 55.8%
Neutral zone
Bedard 50.4%
Result
Connor Bedard favored at 53.1%
53.1%
46.9%
Bedard
Thomas
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
7
(12 meetings)
5
7
Bedard
Thomas
Last 10: Bedard 4-6 Thomas
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thomas
1
2
Bedard
Thomas
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Bedard
Thomas
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thomas
3
4
Bedard
Thomas
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bedard
Thomas
Edge
Even Strength
44.2% (450)
50.1% (615)
-5.9%
Power Play
70.0% (30)
62.2% (98)
+7.8%
Penalty Kill
53.8% (13)
52.6% (114)
+1.2%
On power play, Bedard has a +7.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thomas shoots right. Bedard is 45.6% vs right-shot opponents (149).
Bedard shoots right. Thomas is 52.4% vs right-shot opponents (254).
Home / Away
Bedard
Thomas
Home
50.7% (223)
51.9% (374)
Away
42.2% (270)
51.9% (453)
By Period
Bedard
Thomas
P1
40.8%
49.2%
P2
48.2%
55.3%
P3
48.0%
50.6%
OT
57.1%
57.1%
Final 5 min
45.3%
51.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bedard
46.0%▲
42.5%
46.0%
Thomas
42.0%▼
47.0%
51.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 12, 2025 | 3 | 14:08 | Neutral | Connor Bedard |
| Dec 12, 2025 | 3 | 09:28 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Dec 12, 2025 | 3 | 03:45 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Dec 12, 2025 | 3 | 03:27 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |
| Dec 12, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor Bedard |
| Dec 12, 2025 | 2 | 13:44 | Offensive | Connor Bedard |
| Dec 12, 2025 | 2 | 10:58 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |
| Dec 12, 2025 | 2 | 08:33 | Defensive | Connor Bedard |
| Dec 12, 2025 | 1 | 13:42 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |
| Oct 15, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |
| Oct 15, 2025 | 1 | 11:04 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Oct 15, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor Bedard |