Scouting Report
Robert Thomas holds a +16.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Thomas on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Bedard wins 39.2% vs right-shot opponents — Thomas shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bedard 39.8% vs Thomas 54.5% (-16.5%)
H2H factor
Thomas leads 7-3 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Bedard 75.5%
Defensive zone
Bedard 74.3%
Neutral zone
Bedard 75.9%
Result
Connor Bedard favored at 75.2%
75.2%
24.8%
Bedard
Thomas
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
7
(10 meetings)
3
7
Bedard
Thomas
Last 10: Bedard 3-7 Thomas
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Bedard
Thomas
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thomas
1
2
Bedard
Thomas
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thomas
0
3
Bedard
Thomas
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bedard
Thomas
Edge
Even Strength
38.0% (618)
55.3% (990)
-17.3%
Power Play
38.7% (31)
54.2% (190)
-15.5%
Penalty Kill
57.1% (7)
52.5% (158)
+4.6%
On even strength, Thomas has a +17.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thomas shoots right. Bedard is 39.2% vs right-shot opponents (171).
Bedard shoots right. Thomas is 54.7% vs right-shot opponents (344).
Home / Away
Bedard
Thomas
Home
40.5% (316)
55.1% (690)
Away
36.2% (340)
54.5% (648)
By Period
Bedard
Thomas
P1
37.2%
55.5%
P2
36.9%
56.4%
P3
40.7%
51.5%
OT
50.0%
69.0%
Final 5 min
43.4%
54.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bedard
46.0%▲
42.5%
38.3%
Thomas
42.0%▼
47.0%
54.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2025 | 3 | 08:50 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 3 | 12:06 | Offensive | Connor Bedard |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 3 | 03:50 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 2 | 15:14 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 2 | 07:27 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 1 | 10:51 | Defensive | Connor Bedard |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 1 | 10:38 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 1 | 07:10 | Offensive | Connor Bedard |
| Dec 31, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |
| Dec 31, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |