Scouting Report
Robert Thomas holds a +10.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Thomas on neutral-zone draws (64% H2H, 22 meetings). Bedard wins 40.6% vs right-shot opponents — Thomas shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bedard 41.3% vs Thomas 51.6% (-10.9%)
H2H factor
Thomas leads 21-16 in 37 meetings
Offensive zone
Bedard 79.9%
Defensive zone
Bedard 67.0%
Neutral zone
Bedard 79.1%
Result
Connor Bedard favored at 77.0%
77.0%
23.0%
Bedard
Thomas
Head-to-Head Record
16
-
21
(37 meetings)
16
21
Bedard
Thomas
Last 10: Bedard 4-6 Thomas
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
4
4
Bedard
Thomas
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bedard
4
3
Bedard
Thomas
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thomas
8
14
Bedard
Thomas
22 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bedard
Thomas
Edge
Even Strength
40.1% (1,580)
51.1% (5,350)
-11.0%
Power Play
51.9% (77)
55.8% (921)
-3.9%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (24)
49.9% (691)
+0.1%
On even strength, Thomas has a +11.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thomas shoots right. Bedard is 40.6% vs right-shot opponents (468).
Bedard shoots right. Thomas is 54.5% vs right-shot opponents (2,043).
Home / Away
Bedard
Thomas
Home
43.3% (785)
50.9% (3,458)
Away
38.5% (896)
52.3% (3,504)
By Period
Bedard
Thomas
P1
39.0%
50.6%
P2
40.7%
52.9%
P3
42.6%
50.8%
OT
42.9%
59.2%
Final 5 min
44.9%
53.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bedard
46.0%▲
42.5%
40.7%
Thomas
42.0%▼
47.0%
51.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 12, 2025 | 3 | 14:08 | Neutral | Connor Bedard |
| Dec 12, 2025 | 3 | 09:28 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Dec 12, 2025 | 3 | 03:45 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Dec 12, 2025 | 3 | 03:27 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |
| Dec 12, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor Bedard |
| Dec 12, 2025 | 2 | 13:44 | Offensive | Connor Bedard |
| Dec 12, 2025 | 2 | 10:58 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |
| Dec 12, 2025 | 2 | 08:33 | Defensive | Connor Bedard |
| Dec 12, 2025 | 1 | 13:42 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |
| Oct 15, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |
| Oct 15, 2025 | 1 | 11:04 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Oct 15, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor Bedard |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 3 | 08:50 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 3 | 12:06 | Offensive | Connor Bedard |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 3 | 03:50 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 2 | 15:14 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 2 | 07:27 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 1 | 10:51 | Defensive | Connor Bedard |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 1 | 10:38 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 1 | 07:10 | Offensive | Connor Bedard |