Scouting Report
Sean Monahan holds a +14.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Monahan on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Bedard wins 37.9% vs left-shot opponents — Monahan shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bedard 39.8% vs Monahan 52.4% (-14.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Bedard 55.1%
Defensive zone
Bedard 59.9%
Neutral zone
Monahan 51.2%
Result
Connor Bedard favored at 55.1%
55.1%
44.9%
Bedard
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
Bedard
Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
1
2
Bedard
Monahan
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bedard
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
38.0% (618)
52.4% (853)
-14.4%
Power Play
38.7% (31)
58.6% (174)
-19.9%
Penalty Kill
57.1% (7)
46.5% (144)
+10.6%
On power play, Monahan has a +19.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. Bedard is 37.9% vs left-shot opponents (485).
Bedard shoots right. Monahan is 55.3% vs right-shot opponents (389).
Home / Away
Bedard
Monahan
Home
40.5% (316)
53.4% (624)
Away
36.2% (340)
51.7% (547)
By Period
Bedard
Monahan
P1
37.2%
53.7%
P2
36.9%
52.4%
P3
40.7%
51.6%
OT
50.0%
57.1%
Final 5 min
43.4%
49.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bedard
46.0%▲
42.5%
38.3%
Monahan
54.0%▲
52.5%
52.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 1, 2024 | 3 | 14:43 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 1, 2024 | 2 | 15:41 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 1, 2024 | 2 | 12:54 | Offensive | Connor Bedard |