Scouting Report
Sean Monahan holds a +10.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Monahan on defensive-zone draws (86% H2H, 7 meetings). Bedard wins 40.8% vs left-shot opponents — Monahan shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bedard 41.3% vs Monahan 51.3% (-10.6%)
H2H factor
Monahan leads 14-4 in 18 meetings
Offensive zone
Bedard 93.1%
Defensive zone
Bedard 90.4%
Neutral zone
Bedard 94.9%
Result
Connor Bedard favored at 92.6%
92.6%
7.4%
Bedard
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
14
(18 meetings)
4
14
Bedard
Monahan
Last 10: Bedard 4-6 Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
1
4
Bedard
Monahan
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
1
6
Bedard
Monahan
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Monahan
2
4
Bedard
Monahan
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bedard
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
40.1% (1,580)
51.1% (11,356)
-11.0%
Power Play
51.9% (77)
53.7% (2,580)
-1.8%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (24)
46.0% (766)
+4.0%
On even strength, Monahan has a +11.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. Bedard is 40.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,213).
Bedard shoots right. Monahan is 50.5% vs right-shot opponents (5,401).
Home / Away
Bedard
Monahan
Home
43.3% (785)
52.4% (7,358)
Away
38.5% (896)
50.2% (7,344)
By Period
Bedard
Monahan
P1
39.0%
50.9%
P2
40.7%
51.7%
P3
42.6%
51.0%
OT
42.9%
53.5%
Final 5 min
44.9%
50.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bedard
46.0%▲
42.5%
40.7%
Monahan
54.0%▲
52.5%
51.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 1, 2024 | 3 | 14:43 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 1, 2024 | 2 | 15:41 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 1, 2024 | 2 | 12:54 | Offensive | Connor Bedard |
| Feb 23, 2024 | 3 | 02:14 | Defensive | Connor Bedard |
| Feb 23, 2024 | 3 | 02:10 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Feb 23, 2024 | 2 | 18:54 | Neutral | Connor Bedard |
| Feb 23, 2024 | 2 | 14:38 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Feb 23, 2024 | 1 | 01:50 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 22, 2023 | 3 | 13:16 | Neutral | Connor Bedard |
| Dec 22, 2023 | 3 | 13:11 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 22, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 22, 2023 | 2 | 05:33 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 14, 2023 | 3 | 14:52 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 14, 2023 | 2 | 16:49 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 14, 2023 | 2 | 15:49 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 14, 2023 | 2 | 15:37 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 14, 2023 | 2 | 12:01 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 14, 2023 | 1 | 16:14 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |