Scouting Report
Shane Pinto holds a +9.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Bedard on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Bedard wins 40.6% vs right-shot opponents — Pinto shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bedard 41.3% vs Pinto 50.3% (-9.6%)
H2H factor
Bedard leads 7-4 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Pinto 58.1%
Defensive zone
Pinto 84.4%
Neutral zone
Pinto 80.1%
Result
Shane Pinto favored at 77.3%
22.7%
77.3%
Bedard
Pinto
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
4
(11 meetings)
7
4
Bedard
Pinto
Last 5: Bedard 2-3 Pinto
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Bedard
2
0
Bedard
Pinto
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bedard
2
1
Bedard
Pinto
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
3
3
Bedard
Pinto
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bedard
Pinto
Edge
Even Strength
40.1% (1,580)
50.6% (2,716)
-10.5%
Power Play
51.9% (77)
54.4% (90)
-2.5%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (24)
44.9% (234)
+5.1%
On even strength, Pinto has a +10.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pinto shoots right. Bedard is 40.6% vs right-shot opponents (468).
Bedard shoots right. Pinto is 48.5% vs right-shot opponents (855).
Home / Away
Bedard
Pinto
Home
43.3% (785)
50.9% (1,501)
Away
38.5% (896)
49.6% (1,539)
By Period
Bedard
Pinto
P1
39.0%
48.3%
P2
40.7%
51.7%
P3
42.6%
50.9%
OT
42.9%
46.7%
Final 5 min
44.9%
49.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bedard
46.0%▲
42.5%
40.7%
Pinto
50.0%▲
48.0%
50.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28, 2025 | 3 | 17:55 | Neutral | Shane Pinto |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 2 | 14:46 | Defensive | Shane Pinto |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 1 | 05:35 | Offensive | Connor Bedard |
| Mar 5, 2025 | 3 | 19:04 | Neutral | Connor Bedard |
| Mar 28, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Shane Pinto |