Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +11.8% FO% edge overall. Bedard wins 46.2% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bedard 46.7% vs Hertl 57.2% (-11.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 76.9%
Defensive zone
Bedard 65.9%
Neutral zone
Hertl 57.7%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 76.9%
23.1%
76.9%
Bedard
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Bedard
Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Bedard
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bedard
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
44.2% (450)
58.1% (823)
-13.9%
Power Play
70.0% (30)
56.2% (265)
+13.8%
Penalty Kill
53.8% (13)
62.9% (35)
-9.1%
On even strength, Hertl has a +13.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Bedard is 46.2% vs left-shot opponents (344).
Bedard shoots right. Hertl is 59.6% vs right-shot opponents (433).
Home / Away
Bedard
Hertl
Home
50.7% (223)
59.7% (561)
Away
42.2% (270)
55.9% (562)
By Period
Bedard
Hertl
P1
40.8%
51.6%
P2
48.2%
63.8%
P3
48.0%
58.6%
OT
57.1%
28.6%
Final 5 min
45.3%
58.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bedard
46.0%▲
42.5%
46.0%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2026 | 1 | 04:20 | Offensive | Connor Bedard |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 1 | 00:53 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |