Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +17.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Bedard wins 37.9% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bedard 39.8% vs Hertl 55.4% (-17.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Bedard 56.7%
Defensive zone
Bedard 82.3%
Neutral zone
Bedard 80.2%
Result
Connor Bedard favored at 72.4%
72.4%
27.6%
Bedard
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Bedard
Hertl
Last 6: Bedard 1-5 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
2
Bedard
Hertl
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
3
Bedard
Hertl
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bedard
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
38.0% (618)
54.1% (717)
-16.1%
Power Play
38.7% (31)
61.9% (210)
-23.2%
Penalty Kill
57.1% (7)
58.1% (31)
-1.0%
On power play, Hertl has a +23.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Bedard is 37.9% vs left-shot opponents (485).
Bedard shoots right. Hertl is 56.6% vs right-shot opponents (362).
Home / Away
Bedard
Hertl
Home
40.5% (316)
58.1% (492)
Away
36.2% (340)
53.6% (466)
By Period
Bedard
Hertl
P1
37.2%
57.1%
P2
36.9%
54.0%
P3
40.7%
56.6%
OT
50.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
43.4%
53.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bedard
46.0%▲
42.5%
38.3%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
55.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 27, 2025 | 3 | 08:04 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 3 | 06:56 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 3 | 00:29 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor Bedard |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 2 | 02:59 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |