Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +13.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Bedard wins 40.8% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bedard 41.3% vs Hertl 54.2% (-13.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Bedard 76.2%
Defensive zone
Bedard 75.6%
Neutral zone
Bedard 79.2%
Result
Connor Bedard favored at 77.7%
77.7%
22.3%
Bedard
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
6
(8 meetings)
2
6
Bedard
Hertl
Last 8: Bedard 2-6 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
3
Bedard
Hertl
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
3
Bedard
Hertl
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bedard
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
40.1% (1,580)
53.8% (8,268)
-13.7%
Power Play
51.9% (77)
59.3% (1,975)
-7.4%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (24)
46.3% (806)
+3.7%
On even strength, Hertl has a +13.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Bedard is 40.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,213).
Bedard shoots right. Hertl is 56.8% vs right-shot opponents (4,133).
Home / Away
Bedard
Hertl
Home
43.3% (785)
55.7% (5,344)
Away
38.5% (896)
52.8% (5,705)
By Period
Bedard
Hertl
P1
39.0%
53.6%
P2
40.7%
54.1%
P3
42.6%
55.3%
OT
42.9%
46.5%
Final 5 min
44.9%
54.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bedard
46.0%▲
42.5%
40.7%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2026 | 1 | 04:20 | Offensive | Connor Bedard |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 1 | 00:53 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 3 | 08:04 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 3 | 06:56 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 3 | 00:29 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor Bedard |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 2 | 02:59 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |