Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +16.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 8 meetings). Brown wins 37.5% vs left-shot opponents — Tavares shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Brown 40.1% vs Tavares 54.4% (-16.1%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 9-4 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Brown 57.9%
Defensive zone
Brown 83.5%
Neutral zone
Brown 81.9%
Result
Connor Brown favored at 67.7%
67.7%
32.3%
Brown
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
9
(13 meetings)
4
9
Brown
Tavares
Last 10: Brown 3-7 Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
0
8
Brown
Tavares
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Brown
4
1
Brown
Tavares
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Brown
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
38.7% (313)
54.0% (16,108)
-15.3%
Power Play
36.8% (19)
56.5% (4,283)
-19.7%
Penalty Kill
37.8% (217)
50.6% (620)
-12.8%
On power play, Tavares has a +19.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. Brown is 37.5% vs left-shot opponents (384).
Brown shoots right. Tavares is 51.0% vs right-shot opponents (7,535).
Home / Away
Brown
Tavares
Home
41.5% (246)
56.1% (10,503)
Away
35.6% (303)
52.7% (10,537)
By Period
Brown
Tavares
P1
35.3%
55.0%
P2
40.6%
54.1%
P3
38.6%
54.1%
OT
37.5%
55.9%
Final 5 min
37.6%
54.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Brown
26.0%▼
34.0%
38.3%
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
54.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 16, 2022 | 1 | 11:39 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Apr 16, 2022 | 1 | 05:29 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 16, 2021 | 2 | 09:00 | Defensive | Connor Brown |
| Oct 16, 2021 | 2 | 08:43 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 16, 2021 | 1 | 16:47 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 14, 2021 | 3 | 08:14 | Defensive | Connor Brown |
| Oct 14, 2021 | 3 | 01:48 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 14, 2021 | 3 | 01:39 | Defensive | Connor Brown |
| Jan 15, 2021 | 1 | 09:09 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 1, 2020 | 2 | 03:43 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 2, 2019 | 2 | 02:47 | Defensive | Connor Brown |
| Oct 2, 2019 | 1 | 15:49 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 22, 2018 | OT | 00:10 | Defensive | John Tavares |