Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (46.8% vs 47.7%). Look for Toninato on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Dewar wins 46.0% vs left-shot opponents — Toninato shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dewar 47.5% vs Toninato 48.8% (-0.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Toninato 51.7%
Defensive zone
Dewar 68.8%
Neutral zone
Dewar 58.4%
Result
Connor Dewar favored at 57.0%
57.0%
43.0%
Dewar
Toninato
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
6
(7 meetings)
1
6
Dewar
Toninato
Last 7: Dewar 1-6 Toninato
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Toninato
0
2
Dewar
Toninato
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dewar
1
0
Dewar
Toninato
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Toninato
0
4
Dewar
Toninato
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dewar
Toninato
Edge
Even Strength
46.2% (331)
47.6% (103)
-1.4%
Power Play
45.5% (11)
100.0% (2)
-54.5%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (68)
25.0% (4)
+25.0%
On power play, Toninato has a +54.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Toninato shoots left. Dewar is 46.0% vs left-shot opponents (285).
Dewar shoots left. Toninato is 46.1% vs left-shot opponents (76).
Home / Away
Dewar
Toninato
Home
43.9% (189)
47.3% (55)
Away
49.3% (221)
48.1% (54)
By Period
Dewar
Toninato
P1
50.4%
55.9%
P2
50.0%
51.6%
P3
40.8%
38.6%
Final 5 min
52.0%
40.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dewar
44.0%▬
43.5%
46.8%
Toninato
46.0%▼
47.5%
47.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 31, 2023 | 3 | 10:12 | Offensive | Dominic Toninato |
| Dec 31, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dominic Toninato |
| Dec 31, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dominic Toninato |
| Dec 31, 2023 | 1 | 11:28 | Offensive | Dominic Toninato |
| Dec 30, 2023 | 2 | 06:45 | Neutral | Dominic Toninato |
| Dec 30, 2023 | 1 | 14:49 | Defensive | Connor Dewar |
| Dec 30, 2023 | 1 | 14:38 | Neutral | Dominic Toninato |