Connor Dewar vs Nathan MacKinnon
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +1.7% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on offensive-zone draws (86% H2H, 7 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dewar 45.5% vs MacKinnon 46.8% (-1.7%)
H2H factor
MacKinnon leads 7-6 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 71.5%
Defensive zone
Dewar 70.8%
Neutral zone
Dewar 58.0%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 52.0%
48.0%
52.0%
Dewar
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
7
(13 meetings)
6
7
Dewar
MacKinnon
Last 10: Dewar 5-5 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
1
6
Dewar
MacKinnon
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dewar
5
1
Dewar
MacKinnon
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dewar
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
45.4% (1,037)
46.1% (11,264)
-0.7%
Power Play
60.9% (23)
53.2% (1,421)
+7.7%
Penalty Kill
41.7% (199)
42.8% (502)
-1.1%
On power play, Dewar has a +7.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Dewar is 47.1% vs right-shot opponents (420).
Dewar shoots left. MacKinnon is 47.0% vs left-shot opponents (9,537).
Home / Away
Dewar
MacKinnon
Home
43.8% (603)
49.7% (6,471)
Away
46.3% (656)
43.9% (6,717)
By Period
Dewar
MacKinnon
P1
43.7%
47.4%
P2
46.7%
46.6%
P3
45.0%
46.1%
OT
0.0%
48.4%
Final 5 min
47.9%
49.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dewar
42.0%▼
43.5%
45.1%
MacKinnon
44.0%▼
50.5%
46.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 24, 2026 | 3 | 05:48 | Defensive | Connor Dewar |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 3 | 00:38 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 2 | 12:31 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 1 | 13:40 | Defensive | Connor Dewar |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 1 | 02:46 | Offensive | Connor Dewar |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 3 | 16:12 | Defensive | Connor Dewar |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 2 | 03:59 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 24, 2023 | 1 | 02:47 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 29, 2023 | 1 | 12:06 | Defensive | Connor Dewar |
| Jan 17, 2022 | 2 | 11:35 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 17, 2022 | 1 | 14:48 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 30, 2021 | 2 | 17:59 | Defensive | Connor Dewar |
| Oct 30, 2021 | 1 | 12:34 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |