Scouting Report
Tage Thompson holds a +1.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Dewar on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dewar 47.7% vs Thompson 45.3% (-1.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Thompson 67.9%
Defensive zone
Dewar 67.8%
Neutral zone
Thompson 55.8%
Result
Connor Dewar favored at 58.9%
58.9%
41.1%
Dewar
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
Dewar
Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thompson
0
1
Dewar
Thompson
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dewar
2
1
Dewar
Thompson
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dewar
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (28)
44.9% (642)
+8.7%
Power Play
100.0% (1)
47.9% (94)
+52.1%
Penalty Kill
30.8% (26)
33.3% (33)
-2.5%
On power play, Dewar has a +52.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots right. Dewar is 47.6% vs right-shot opponents (21).
Dewar shoots left. Thompson is 42.1% vs left-shot opponents (549).
Home / Away
Dewar
Thompson
Home
42.1% (19)
46.0% (391)
Away
44.4% (36)
43.4% (378)
By Period
Dewar
Thompson
P1
52.6%
48.1%
P2
31.8%
44.9%
P3
53.8%
41.2%
OT
0.0%
42.9%
Final 5 min
43.8%
42.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dewar
44.0%▬
43.5%
43.6%
Thompson
36.0%▼
39.5%
44.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 5, 2026 | 2 | 11:57 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |
| Feb 5, 2026 | 2 | 07:34 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Feb 5, 2026 | 2 | 07:28 | Defensive | Connor Dewar |
| Feb 5, 2026 | 1 | 19:03 | Defensive | Connor Dewar |