Scouting Report
Aatu Raty holds a +13.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Raty on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 7 meetings). Raty wins 60.9% vs left-shot opponents — McDavid shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Raty 59.8% vs McDavid 47.9% (+13.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Raty 78.9%
Defensive zone
Raty 97.2%
Neutral zone
Raty 91.9%
Result
Aatu Raty favored at 94.9%
94.9%
5.1%
Raty
McDavid
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
1
(8 meetings)
7
1
Raty
McDavid
Last 8: Raty 7-1 McDavid
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
0
1
Raty
McDavid
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Raty
7
0
Raty
McDavid
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Raty
McDavid
Edge
Even Strength
60.5% (478)
47.5% (650)
+13.0%
Power Play
75.0% (20)
48.6% (72)
+26.4%
Penalty Kill
63.8% (94)
46.5% (43)
+17.3%
On power play, Raty has a +26.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McDavid shoots left. Raty is 60.9% vs left-shot opponents (409).
Raty shoots left. McDavid is 45.3% vs left-shot opponents (554).
Home / Away
Raty
McDavid
Home
61.4% (332)
50.2% (400)
Away
61.5% (260)
44.7% (365)
By Period
Raty
McDavid
P1
56.6%
47.5%
P2
67.4%
48.6%
P3
59.6%
46.7%
OT
50.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
61.7%
51.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Raty
68.0%▲
63.5%
61.5%
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 17, 2026 | 3 | 06:29 | Defensive | Aatu Raty |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 2 | 19:54 | Defensive | Aatu Raty |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 2 | 06:20 | Defensive | Aatu Raty |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 1 | 07:59 | Defensive | Aatu Raty |
| Oct 26, 2025 | 3 | 14:30 | Defensive | Aatu Raty |
| Oct 26, 2025 | 1 | 19:24 | Defensive | Aatu Raty |
| Oct 26, 2025 | 1 | 17:22 | Defensive | Aatu Raty |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 2 | 09:09 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |