Scouting Report
Derek Grant holds a +3.3% FO% edge overall. Look for McDavid on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 51.8% vs Grant 54.3% (-3.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 64.7%
Defensive zone
Grant 71.6%
Neutral zone
Grant 66.5%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 53.4%
53.4%
46.6%
McDavid
Grant
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
McDavid
Grant
Last 6: McDavid 4-2 Grant
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
4
0
McDavid
Grant
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Grant
0
1
McDavid
Grant
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Grant
0
1
McDavid
Grant
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Grant
Edge
Even Strength
51.5% (889)
56.5% (308)
-5.0%
Power Play
63.9% (36)
65.3% (49)
-1.4%
Penalty Kill
51.2% (86)
48.5% (136)
+2.7%
On even strength, Grant has a +5.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Grant shoots left. McDavid is 51.1% vs left-shot opponents (654).
McDavid shoots left. Grant is 53.0% vs left-shot opponents (313).
Home / Away
McDavid
Grant
Home
50.7% (513)
60.3% (257)
Away
53.2% (498)
49.6% (236)
By Period
McDavid
Grant
P1
52.3%
54.7%
P2
51.6%
54.0%
P3
51.7%
57.1%
OT
100.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
56.5%
51.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
51.9%
Grant
48.0%▼
57.5%
55.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 5, 2023 | 3 | 15:18 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Apr 5, 2023 | 1 | 14:16 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Apr 5, 2023 | 1 | 08:06 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Apr 1, 2023 | 3 | 16:28 | Neutral | Derek Grant |
| Apr 1, 2023 | 3 | 16:21 | Defensive | Derek Grant |
| Apr 1, 2023 | 2 | 05:48 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |