Scouting Report
Derek Grant holds a +4.5% FO% edge overall. Look for McDavid on offensive-zone draws (82% H2H, 11 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.8% vs Grant 52.2% (-4.5%)
H2H factor
Grant leads 11-11 in 22 meetings
Offensive zone
McDavid 78.8%
Defensive zone
Grant 75.2%
Neutral zone
McDavid 50.6%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 56.5%
56.5%
43.5%
McDavid
Grant
Head-to-Head Record
11
-
11
(22 meetings)
11
11
McDavid
Grant
Last 10: McDavid 4-6 Grant
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
9
2
McDavid
Grant
11 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Grant
2
5
McDavid
Grant
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Grant
0
4
McDavid
Grant
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Grant
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (8,358)
53.7% (2,864)
-6.0%
Power Play
52.0% (371)
61.7% (175)
-9.7%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (279)
46.0% (922)
-2.6%
On power play, Grant has a +9.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Grant shoots left. McDavid is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (5,903).
McDavid shoots left. Grant is 51.0% vs left-shot opponents (2,612).
Home / Away
McDavid
Grant
Home
49.3% (4,570)
54.3% (1,956)
Away
46.1% (4,438)
50.2% (2,005)
By Period
McDavid
Grant
P1
46.5%
51.1%
P2
48.7%
51.5%
P3
48.3%
54.3%
OT
40.9%
35.7%
Final 5 min
50.1%
54.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.7%
Grant
48.0%▼
57.5%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 5, 2023 | 3 | 15:18 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Apr 5, 2023 | 1 | 14:16 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Apr 5, 2023 | 1 | 08:06 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Apr 1, 2023 | 3 | 16:28 | Neutral | Derek Grant |
| Apr 1, 2023 | 3 | 16:21 | Defensive | Derek Grant |
| Apr 1, 2023 | 2 | 05:48 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Apr 3, 2022 | 2 | 01:09 | Offensive | Derek Grant |
| Feb 17, 2022 | 3 | 06:11 | Defensive | Derek Grant |
| Nov 10, 2019 | 2 | 12:59 | Offensive | Derek Grant |
| Mar 30, 2019 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Derek Grant |
| Mar 30, 2019 | 2 | 00:50 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 30, 2019 | 1 | 02:18 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 25, 2018 | 3 | 14:26 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 25, 2018 | 3 | 12:00 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 25, 2018 | 3 | 11:28 | Defensive | Derek Grant |
| Mar 25, 2018 | 2 | 14:32 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 25, 2018 | 2 | 07:10 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 4, 2018 | 1 | 02:37 | Defensive | Derek Grant |
| Oct 16, 2016 | 1 | 13:17 | Defensive | Derek Grant |
| Oct 16, 2016 | 1 | 07:41 | Neutral | Derek Grant |