Scouting Report
Erik Haula holds a +2.5% FO% edge overall. McDavid wins 45.3% vs left-shot opponents — Haula shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.9% vs Haula 50.1% (-2.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 65.8%
Defensive zone
Haula 53.0%
Neutral zone
McDavid 54.2%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 62.0%
62.0%
38.0%
McDavid
Haula
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
McDavid
Haula
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
McDavid
Haula
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Haula
0
1
McDavid
Haula
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Haula
Edge
Even Strength
47.5% (650)
50.0% (704)
-2.5%
Power Play
48.6% (72)
55.4% (74)
-6.8%
Penalty Kill
46.5% (43)
44.1% (59)
+2.4%
On power play, Haula has a +6.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Haula shoots left. McDavid is 45.3% vs left-shot opponents (554).
McDavid shoots left. Haula is 49.4% vs left-shot opponents (530).
Home / Away
McDavid
Haula
Home
50.2% (400)
48.6% (426)
Away
44.7% (365)
51.6% (411)
By Period
McDavid
Haula
P1
47.5%
52.2%
P2
48.6%
51.5%
P3
46.7%
46.7%
OT
33.3%
50.0%
Final 5 min
51.3%
50.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.6%
Haula
54.0%▲
48.5%
50.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2026 | 3 | 04:52 | Neutral | Erik Haula |
| Mar 15, 2026 | 3 | 00:53 | Offensive | Erik Haula |
| Mar 15, 2026 | 1 | 00:52 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |