Scouting Report
J.T. Miller holds a +13.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Miller on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). McDavid wins 45.3% vs left-shot opponents — Miller shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.9% vs Miller 59.6% (-13.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 69.2%
Defensive zone
McDavid 70.0%
Neutral zone
McDavid 70.3%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 69.6%
69.6%
30.4%
McDavid
Miller
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
McDavid
Miller
Last 6: McDavid 2-4 Miller
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
2
1
McDavid
Miller
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Miller
0
3
McDavid
Miller
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Miller
Edge
Even Strength
47.5% (650)
61.5% (540)
-14.0%
Power Play
48.6% (72)
65.6% (122)
-17.0%
Penalty Kill
46.5% (43)
47.7% (65)
-1.2%
On power play, Miller has a +17.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Miller shoots left. McDavid is 45.3% vs left-shot opponents (554).
McDavid shoots left. Miller is 61.7% vs left-shot opponents (454).
Home / Away
McDavid
Miller
Home
50.2% (400)
62.1% (372)
Away
44.7% (365)
59.7% (355)
By Period
McDavid
Miller
P1
47.5%
58.9%
P2
48.6%
63.9%
P3
46.7%
59.8%
OT
33.3%
60.0%
Final 5 min
51.3%
63.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.6%
Miller
62.0%▬
61.5%
60.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2025 | 3 | 11:02 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 14, 2025 | 3 | 02:01 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Oct 14, 2025 | 3 | 01:32 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Oct 14, 2025 | 2 | 16:53 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |
| Oct 14, 2025 | 2 | 16:37 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Oct 14, 2025 | 1 | 18:00 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |