Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (53.7% vs 54.1%). Look for McDavid on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). McDavid wins 54.3% vs left-shot opponents — Miller shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 53.4% vs Miller 53.8% (-0.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 62.5%
Defensive zone
Miller 59.9%
Neutral zone
Miller 52.5%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 58.7%
58.7%
41.3%
McDavid
Miller
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
McDavid
Miller
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
2
1
McDavid
Miller
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Miller
0
1
McDavid
Miller
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Miller
Edge
Even Strength
54.3% (1,002)
55.5% (933)
-1.2%
Power Play
44.8% (29)
61.6% (73)
-16.8%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (15)
45.8% (227)
-12.5%
On power play, Miller has a +16.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Miller shoots left. McDavid is 54.3% vs left-shot opponents (679).
McDavid shoots left. Miller is 54.6% vs left-shot opponents (769).
Home / Away
McDavid
Miller
Home
53.6% (507)
53.5% (578)
Away
53.8% (539)
54.7% (655)
By Period
McDavid
Miller
P1
52.6%
58.3%
P2
54.1%
53.5%
P3
54.9%
50.1%
OT
44.4%
70.6%
Final 5 min
52.2%
54.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
53.7%
Miller
62.0%▬
61.5%
54.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 25, 2022 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | J.T. Miller |
| Jan 25, 2022 | 2 | 01:00 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |
| Jan 25, 2022 | 1 | 03:10 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 30, 2021 | 3 | 08:54 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |