Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +1.5% FO% edge overall. McDavid wins 53.5% vs right-shot opponents — Pavelski shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 51.8% vs Pavelski 53.0% (-1.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 50.9%
Defensive zone
McDavid 68.2%
Neutral zone
McDavid 56.7%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 60.2%
60.2%
39.8%
McDavid
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
McDavid
Pavelski
Last 5: McDavid 2-3 Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
0
1
McDavid
Pavelski
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
McDavid
Pavelski
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
McDavid
Pavelski
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
51.5% (889)
52.3% (560)
-0.8%
Power Play
63.9% (36)
57.5% (113)
+6.4%
Penalty Kill
51.2% (86)
62.5% (16)
-11.3%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +11.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. McDavid is 53.5% vs right-shot opponents (357).
McDavid shoots left. Pavelski is 52.0% vs left-shot opponents (513).
Home / Away
McDavid
Pavelski
Home
50.7% (513)
54.2% (360)
Away
53.2% (498)
52.6% (329)
By Period
McDavid
Pavelski
P1
52.3%
54.5%
P2
51.6%
56.7%
P3
51.7%
50.8%
OT
100.0%
30.8%
Final 5 min
56.5%
51.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
51.9%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
53.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 16, 2023 | 1 | 02:10 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 21, 2022 | 3 | 12:04 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 21, 2022 | 3 | 09:39 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 5, 2022 | 1 | 05:54 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 5, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |