Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (51.1% vs 51.1%). Look for McDavid on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 51.0% vs Pavelski 50.9% (+0.0%)
H2H factor
McDavid leads 8-4 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
McDavid 52.8%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 56.3%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 61.2%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 53.0%
47.0%
53.0%
McDavid
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
4
(12 meetings)
8
4
McDavid
Pavelski
Last 10: McDavid 7-3 Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
6
0
McDavid
Pavelski
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
0
3
McDavid
Pavelski
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDavid
2
1
McDavid
Pavelski
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
51.6% (803)
51.5% (594)
+0.1%
Power Play
50.0% (40)
51.7% (87)
-1.7%
Penalty Kill
36.4% (22)
28.6% (14)
+7.8%
On penalty kill, McDavid has a +7.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. McDavid is 49.8% vs right-shot opponents (249).
McDavid shoots left. Pavelski is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (527).
Home / Away
McDavid
Pavelski
Home
51.8% (415)
53.1% (339)
Away
50.4% (450)
49.2% (356)
By Period
McDavid
Pavelski
P1
47.5%
53.8%
P2
51.6%
47.8%
P3
55.5%
50.2%
OT
50.0%
71.4%
Final 5 min
50.5%
48.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
51.1%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 3, 2024 | 3 | 06:22 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 3, 2024 | 3 | 06:19 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Apr 3, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Apr 3, 2024 | 1 | 05:11 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Apr 3, 2024 | 1 | 05:09 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 3, 2024 | 1 | 04:52 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Apr 3, 2024 | 1 | 00:15 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 3, 2024 | 1 | 00:10 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Apr 3, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 17, 2024 | 2 | 16:24 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 17, 2024 | 2 | 01:21 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 17, 2024 | 1 | 05:16 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |