Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +6.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on defensive-zone draws (59% H2H, 27 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.8% vs Pavelski 54.1% (-6.5%)
H2H factor
Pavelski leads 39-31 in 70 meetings
Offensive zone
McDavid 70.8%
Defensive zone
McDavid 75.5%
Neutral zone
McDavid 78.8%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 75.5%
75.5%
24.5%
McDavid
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
31
-
39
(70 meetings)
31
39
McDavid
Pavelski
Last 10: McDavid 7-3 Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
10
8
McDavid
Pavelski
18 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
11
16
McDavid
Pavelski
27 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
10
15
McDavid
Pavelski
25 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (8,358)
53.6% (8,791)
-5.9%
Power Play
52.0% (371)
58.2% (2,122)
-6.2%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (279)
50.9% (1,138)
-7.5%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +7.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. McDavid is 47.9% vs right-shot opponents (3,105).
McDavid shoots left. Pavelski is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (9,103).
Home / Away
McDavid
Pavelski
Home
49.3% (4,570)
56.4% (5,998)
Away
46.1% (4,438)
52.0% (6,076)
By Period
McDavid
Pavelski
P1
46.5%
53.5%
P2
48.7%
55.2%
P3
48.3%
53.9%
OT
40.9%
52.3%
Final 5 min
50.1%
54.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.7%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 3, 2024 | 3 | 06:22 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 3, 2024 | 3 | 06:19 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Apr 3, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Apr 3, 2024 | 1 | 05:11 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Apr 3, 2024 | 1 | 05:09 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 3, 2024 | 1 | 04:52 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Apr 3, 2024 | 1 | 00:15 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 3, 2024 | 1 | 00:10 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Apr 3, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 17, 2024 | 2 | 16:24 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 17, 2024 | 2 | 01:21 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 17, 2024 | 1 | 05:16 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 16, 2023 | 1 | 02:10 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 21, 2022 | 3 | 12:04 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 21, 2022 | 3 | 09:39 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 5, 2022 | 1 | 05:54 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 5, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Apr 20, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Apr 20, 2022 | 2 | 16:04 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Apr 20, 2022 | 2 | 13:04 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |