Connor McDavid vs Jonathan Marchessault
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Connor McDavid holds a +14.3% FO% edge overall. McDavid wins 53.6% vs right-shot opponents — Marchessault shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.9% vs Marchessault 45.9% (+14.3%)
Offensive zone
Marchessault 50.4%
Defensive zone
McDavid 67.1%
Neutral zone
McDavid 54.1%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 56.9%
56.9%
43.1%
McDavid
Marchessault
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Marchessault
Edge
Even Strength
47.5% (650)
30.0% (30)
+17.5%
Power Play
48.6% (72)
66.7% (3)
-18.1%
On power play, Marchessault has a +18.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Marchessault shoots right. McDavid is 53.6% vs right-shot opponents (211).
McDavid shoots left. Marchessault is 37.5% vs left-shot opponents (24).
Home / Away
McDavid
Marchessault
Home
50.2% (400)
33.3% (21)
Away
44.7% (365)
33.3% (12)
By Period
McDavid
Marchessault
P1
47.5%
45.5%
P2
48.6%
25.0%
P3
46.7%
22.2%
OT
33.3%
100.0%
Final 5 min
51.3%
14.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.6%
Marchessault
32.0%▬
32.0%
33.3%