Scouting Report
Max Domi holds a +1.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Domi on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.8% vs Domi 48.8% (-1.1%)
H2H factor
Domi leads 10-8 in 18 meetings
Offensive zone
McDavid 52.4%
Defensive zone
McDavid 53.3%
Neutral zone
McDavid 53.7%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 53.2%
53.2%
46.8%
McDavid
Domi
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
10
(18 meetings)
8
10
McDavid
Domi
Last 10: McDavid 3-7 Domi
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Domi
1
3
McDavid
Domi
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
5
4
McDavid
Domi
9 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Domi
2
3
McDavid
Domi
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Domi
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (8,358)
48.1% (4,296)
-0.4%
Power Play
52.0% (371)
53.4% (633)
-1.4%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (279)
48.8% (41)
-5.4%
On penalty kill, Domi has a +5.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Domi shoots left. McDavid is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (5,903).
McDavid shoots left. Domi is 49.8% vs left-shot opponents (3,341).
Home / Away
McDavid
Domi
Home
49.3% (4,570)
49.7% (2,604)
Away
46.1% (4,438)
47.8% (2,366)
By Period
McDavid
Domi
P1
46.5%
48.7%
P2
48.7%
48.3%
P3
48.3%
49.8%
OT
40.9%
43.5%
Final 5 min
50.1%
51.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.7%
Domi
54.0%▲
52.5%
48.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 3, 2026 | 3 | 07:42 | Neutral | Max Domi |
| Feb 1, 2025 | 3 | 00:46 | Offensive | Max Domi |
| Feb 1, 2025 | 3 | 00:43 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 16, 2024 | 3 | 12:38 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 16, 2023 | 3 | 15:07 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 16, 2023 | 3 | 12:37 | Defensive | Max Domi |
| Mar 16, 2023 | 2 | 08:34 | Neutral | Max Domi |
| Mar 16, 2023 | 1 | 12:37 | Defensive | Max Domi |
| Jan 28, 2023 | 2 | 13:47 | Defensive | Max Domi |
| Jan 28, 2023 | 2 | 00:24 | Offensive | Max Domi |
| Jan 28, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Max Domi |
| Jan 28, 2023 | 1 | 03:39 | Offensive | Max Domi |
| Jan 28, 2023 | 1 | 03:28 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 28, 2023 | 1 | 00:10 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 28, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 21, 2019 | 1 | 03:34 | Defensive | Max Domi |
| Dec 21, 2019 | 1 | 00:34 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 12, 2016 | 2 | 12:41 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |