Scouting Report
Mika Zibanejad holds a +4.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Zibanejad on offensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). McDavid wins 53.6% vs right-shot opponents — Zibanejad shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.9% vs Zibanejad 51.6% (-4.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 75.7%
Defensive zone
McDavid 54.8%
Neutral zone
McDavid 62.5%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 71.9%
71.9%
28.1%
McDavid
Zibanejad
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
McDavid
Zibanejad
Last 7: McDavid 2-5 Zibanejad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Zibanejad
2
3
McDavid
Zibanejad
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Zibanejad
0
2
McDavid
Zibanejad
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Zibanejad
Edge
Even Strength
47.5% (650)
53.4% (770)
-5.9%
Power Play
48.6% (72)
46.2% (39)
+2.4%
Penalty Kill
46.5% (43)
44.7% (141)
+1.8%
On even strength, Zibanejad has a +5.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zibanejad shoots right. McDavid is 53.6% vs right-shot opponents (211).
McDavid shoots left. Zibanejad is 51.1% vs left-shot opponents (697).
Home / Away
McDavid
Zibanejad
Home
50.2% (400)
49.0% (429)
Away
44.7% (365)
54.1% (521)
By Period
McDavid
Zibanejad
P1
47.5%
53.0%
P2
48.6%
51.1%
P3
46.7%
51.0%
OT
33.3%
60.0%
Final 5 min
51.3%
56.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.6%
Zibanejad
50.0%▼
51.5%
51.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30, 2025 | 3 | 10:04 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 3 | 08:18 | Neutral | Mika Zibanejad |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 3 | 00:28 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 2 | 11:35 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 2 | 01:09 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 1 | 06:51 | Neutral | Mika Zibanejad |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 1 | 03:46 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |