Scouting Report
Connor McDavid holds a +1.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Zibanejad on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 53.4% vs Zibanejad 52.2% (+1.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 53.3%
Defensive zone
Zibanejad 54.7%
Neutral zone
Zibanejad 52.8%
Result
Mika Zibanejad favored at 52.6%
47.4%
52.6%
McDavid
Zibanejad
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
5
(9 meetings)
4
5
McDavid
Zibanejad
Last 9: McDavid 4-5 Zibanejad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
1
0
McDavid
Zibanejad
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
McDavid
Zibanejad
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Zibanejad
2
4
McDavid
Zibanejad
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Zibanejad
Edge
Even Strength
54.3% (1,002)
54.0% (955)
+0.3%
Power Play
44.8% (29)
55.6% (243)
-10.8%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (15)
35.0% (140)
-1.7%
On power play, Zibanejad has a +10.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zibanejad shoots right. McDavid is 52.6% vs right-shot opponents (367).
McDavid shoots left. Zibanejad is 53.0% vs left-shot opponents (1,033).
Home / Away
McDavid
Zibanejad
Home
53.6% (507)
55.2% (656)
Away
53.8% (539)
49.6% (682)
By Period
McDavid
Zibanejad
P1
52.6%
56.3%
P2
54.1%
50.0%
P3
54.9%
51.2%
OT
44.4%
52.6%
Final 5 min
52.2%
47.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
53.7%
Zibanejad
50.0%▼
51.5%
52.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 3, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mika Zibanejad |
| Jan 3, 2022 | 2 | 03:03 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Jan 3, 2022 | 2 | 02:57 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 3, 2022 | 2 | 00:18 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 3, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 3, 2022 | 1 | 00:05 | Neutral | Mika Zibanejad |
| Jan 3, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mika Zibanejad |
| Nov 5, 2021 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mika Zibanejad |
| Nov 5, 2021 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |